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9:39 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Gov: The Republican gubernatorial field has yet to fully take shape, and a new early February survey from the Republican pollster Remington Research Group on behalf of the Missouri Alliance for Freedom only underscores how chaotic things are.
Right now only state Auditor Tom Schweich and former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway are officially running. In a head-to-head matchup, Schweich edges her 19-16, with 18 percent favoring "someone else" and a whooping 47 percent undecided. Things remain close when Remington tosses in businessman and 2012 Senate candidate John Brunner: Schweich edges Hanaway 16-13, and Brunner takes 10. Brunner himself has been quiet about the possibility of running, but there have been rumors swirling for a while that he's interested.
Remington tested one more primary matchup, and it's the most interesting of them all. They replace Brunner with Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and find him ahead with 24; Schweich and Hanaway are at 15 and 12 percent respectively. Kinder himself said back in November that he planned to seek another term as lieutenant governor, but we'll see if this survey is a sign that he's reconsidering.
Kinder tried running for governor in the 2012 cycle, but it did not go well. His freewheeling style left many members of his party anxious, and news that he once frequented a strip club called The Horny Toad gave wary Republicans all the excuse they needed to ditch him. Kinder pulled the plug on his nascent campaign, though the eventual GOP nominee Dave Spence ended up losing to Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon by 12 points anyway.
However, Kinder proved to be more resilient than expected in 2012. He managed to narrowly win renomination against an opponent who hoped to turn The Horny Toad into Kinder's Achilles heel. In November, Kinder defeated former Democratic state Auditor Susan Montee 49-46, making him the only Republican to win statewide that year who wasn't named Mitt Romney. Kinder ran for Congress in a special election the next year, but lost the nomination convention to now-Rep. Jason Smith.
Given Kinder's past, plenty of Democrats would love it if he slipped through and won the nomination. However, he does have a good relationship with African Americans in the St. Louis-area that could help in a general election. In 2012 Montee carried the predominantly black St. Louis-area 1st Congressional District 77-19, underperforming Obama's 80-19 margin there even as she was running ahead of the president by about 6 statewide.
Kinder's relatively good performance didn't make the difference in 2012: If Montee has won the same margin as Obama in the 1st, she still would have lost. But it could make a difference in a tight race. In the aftermath of Ferguson, it's also possible that Kinder's longstanding ties to the community could help him more with a group that's long felt ignored by the rest of the state government, including by Gov. Nixon. We'll see if Kinder is actually interested in making another run at the governor's mansion, or if he stays put this time.
11:20 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Great Mentioner: Great mentioning... for John McCain! The Arizona senator is used to easy re-election campaigns, but 2016 is going to be different. His intra-party detractors are working hard to recruit a Republican primary challenger, and Democrats are eying this seat for a pickup. Our Daily Kos Great Mentioner series takes a look at who could run on both sides.
11:26 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Sen: Republican Sen. Roy Blunt has been stockpiling his resources in the hopes of deterring a primary challenge, and so far he's been successful. Nevertheless, Remington Research Group takes a look at a hypothetical match between Blunt and 2012 candidate John Brunner, who could self-fund a bid. Blunt starts out with a 50-19 lead against Brunner, who has not publicly expressed interest in taking on the incumbent.
11:32 AM PT (Jeff Singer): AZ-Sen, 09: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema finally addressed rumors that she's looking to run against Republican Sen. John McCain next year, but her response was... not particularly helpful. When Roll Call asked if she's thinking about a Senate bid she replied, "No. I’m really thinking about doing a good job for my constituents in Congressional District Nine." Not exactly a firm, "No, I'm not running," is it?
And Sinema addressed her new leadership PAC by saying, "There are a lot of people in Congress who have leadership PACs. Actually, most. So do you think all of those people are going to run against John McCain? Oof, that’s a big field." Ok, that's kind of funny.
11:56 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen, 09: A few weeks ago, Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson began talking about running for the Senate, and the liberal firebrand sounds like he's chomping at the bit to get in now.
Grayson indicated to The Hill that he wouldn't want to run against fellow Rep. and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who did not rule out a campaign a few weeks ago. But Grayson doesn't sound nervous about challenging anyone else in the primary, arguing he has national name recognition and support. Grayson summed it up saying, "If you Google my name you get more hits than any other House member among the Democrats other than Nancy Pelosi and John Conyers, so in that sense, I’m the third best-known House Democrat." Modest, isn't he? (Also we checked: Grayson actually gets more Google hits that Conyers but far fewer than John Lewis, and he also trails Wasserman Schultz).
Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy has been talking about running for this seat, which Republican incumbent Marco Rubio may vacate for a White House bid. Rep. Gwen Graham hasn't appeared as interested, but some Democrats think she could be persuaded. But either of them could have a tough time in a primary with Grayson, who would try to use their moderate profiles against them.
12:06 PM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Sen: Republican Rep. John Fleming has not been subtle about his desire to go to the Senate. Sen. David Vitter is currently the frontrunner in this year's gubernatorial contest and Fleming is trying to persuade Vitter to appoint him to what would be a vacant Senate seat. But one fellow Louisiana Republican really, really, really doesn't want to see a Sen. John Fleming. Former Rep. Vance McAllister told LaPolitics that he's interested in running for the Senate—if it means challenging Fleming. McAllister was relatively moderate during his short tenure and said of the more conservative Fleming, "We don’t need another Ted Cruz."
Of course McAllister's own career self-destructed last year after he was caught on camera kissing a woman who was not his wife. McAllister placed a distant fourth in the November jungle primary, and it's hard to see him returning to Congress. But if he runs he could have an impact. LaPolitics' Jeremy Alford notes that Republican Rep. Charles Boustany might be interested in going to the Senate as well, though he's deliberately been a lot quieter than Fleming about it. Both Fleming and McAllister hail from North Louisiana while Boustany represents a Lafayette-area seat on the Gulf Coast. If all three ran and the North Louisiana vote were split enough, Boustany could capitalize.
12:50 PM PT: Votes: As Roll Call explains, Tuesday's House vote to repeal Obamacare was a gift to Republican freshmen who hadn't had the opportunity to cast such vote on the 55 prior occasions GOP leadership has unsuccessfully pushed this stunt. Now new congressmen and -women can go back home to their districts with a pointless talisman to ward off tea party primary challenges while actually doing nothing to solve this nation's problems. Success!
However, three first-term Republicans actually voted again repeal—Bob Dold! (IL-10), John Katko (NY-24), and Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)—though it's no surprise why: All sit in districts Obama won, by 16 points in the first two cases and 9 in the last, and all three will be major targets for Democrats in 2016. The only thing that's at all notable is that even more vulnerable freshmen didn't dissent, like, say, Rod Blum (IA-01) or Carlos Curbelo (FL-26).
But this, too, is not surprising. Republicans have long faced a poignant tradeoff: Do they spend their time in D.C. buffing up their chances in their next general election, or do they bolster their conservative bona fides to ensure an easy path to renomination? For Republicans in Obama seats, it's a particularly difficult conundrum to navigate, but most seem to prefer the latter option (which of course is also emotionally simpler). Three GOPers have, however, just chosen door number one; we'll see how that works out for them next year.
1:15 PM PT (Jeff Singer): AZ-Sen: McCain himself is preparing to fight off a credible primary challenge from the right, and he got a little bit of help on Wednesday. McCain's home state colleague Jeff Flake said that he'll back McCain if he runs for another term, as he looks likely to do. Flake has much closer ties to tea party types than McCain does, and his support could be quite helpful for making inroads with this group.
1:22 PM PT: NH-Gov: Former Gov. John H. Sununu, father of former Sen. John E. Sununu, recently suggested that his other son, Chris Sununu, might make a gubernatorial bid in 2016. Chris Sununu serves on New Hampshire's unique Executive Council, a five-member elective body that has veto power over certain gubernatorial prerogatives, and considered bids for Senate, governor, and House last cycle.
But federal office is foreclosed to Sununu next year, since GOP Rep. Frank Guinta narrowly recaptured the state's 1st Congressional District in November, and Kelly Ayotte, another fellow Republican, is up for re-election to the Senate. However, if Democrats can lure Gov. Maggie Hassan into challenging Ayotte, that would offer an enticing open seat race for a lot of Granite State Republicans, not just Sununu.
1:34 PM PT: TX-23: Right after Pete Gallego's narrow 2-point defeat on election night, the DCCC began courting him for a 2016 rematch with Republican Will Hurd, and now Gallego has confirmed he's interested. As far as making a decision, Gallego says, "I haven't gotten to that bridge yet," but he certainly sounds like he's been thinking about things pretty hard.
Gallego has his own take on what happened last year, saying: "I don't know anyone who thinks that the last election was a referendum on me," and he certainly has a point. He describes his race as "the perfect storm combination of an unpopular president, a gubernatorial campaign that didn't go well and poor turnout," all of which is accurate, particularly that last item. Texas' 23rd District, the state's only swing seat, is heavily Latino turf that's prone to large turnout swings among Democratic voters. With a presidential race at the top of the ticket, that problem should be alleviated, and Gallego would be well-positioned to reclaim his old stomping grounds.
1:49 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-44, L.A. County Board of Supervisors: Plenty of Democratic House members don't relish life in the minority, and one may have a good escape hatch. Rep. Janice Hahn is considering a 2016 bid for an open spot on the powerful Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, a job her father Kenneth Hahn held for 40 years. Hahn herself didn't confirm her interest but one of her advisers went on the record and said that the congresswoman is looking at a campaign here.
If Hahn goes forward with this, it will open up her safely blue seat. There are plenty of Democrats who'd want to take a look here, but local operatives tell Roll Call that state Sen. Isadore Hall III is the most likely to run and to win. Hall ran for this seat in the 2012 cycle as an assemblyman, but he dropped out in late 2011 rather than face Hahn and then-Rep. Laura Richardson. However, Hall's seat is up in 2016, so he'd need to give up his post in Sacramento to run here. Obama won 85 percent in this seat, which includes Compton and San Pedro, so we could easily see two Democrats collect the most votes in the top-two primary and advance to the general.
Hahn's chances of making it to the Board of Supervisors would probably start out good. District 4 gave Obama 61 percent of the vote, though it is currently represented ay a termed-out Republican. Other candidates could run for this post, but Hahn will likely start out as the clear favorite due to her name recognition and connections. The board oversees billions of dollars and only consists of five members, and a Supervisor Hahn would be much more influential than Rep. Hahn is.
2:08 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-44: If Hahn won, she'd join another former congresswoman on the board: Hilda Solis, who served as secretary of labor, represents another district.
2:23 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-44: A source close to Los Angeles City Councilor Joe Buscaino also tells Roll Call that he may run for Congress if Hahn departs.
2:29 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: Brookings Institution demographer William Frey has a new book coming out with the exciting title Diversity Explosion: How Racial Demographics are Remaking America, and he offers a little taste of it at the Brookings blog, with an interesting chart that shows just how large the often-overlooked migration of African-Americans back to the south is. Until around 1970, there was a large net outmigration of black citizens out of the south, but since then it's turned around completely.
In the years 2005 to 2010, for instance, the south had net gains of nearly 350,000 African-Americans due to migration, while the other three regions had a net loss of African-Americans due to migration. That was especially pronounced in the northeast, with a net loss of nearly 250,000 in that same period. In terms of political implications, we're likeliest to see effects in Georgia, which has seen probably the largest share of the in-migration, and which keeps edging closer to swing state status.
3:41 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-44: It's worth noting that Hahn's name surfaced for a different supervisor seat in 2014, but she didn't run.