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Anchorage Mayor: Filing closed on Friday for the April 7 non-partisan primary in Alaska's largest city, and a list of candidates is
available here. Lance Ahern, the city's chief information technology director, entered the race
just before the deadline arrived. Ahern is making his first ever run for office and it doesn't sound like he's exactly been laying the groundwork for a campaign, but he may have enough connections to at least affect the race.
It looks like there are four notable contenders: Republican City Assemblymember Amy Demboski; former Assemblymember Dan Coffey, a conservative independent-turned-Republican; former Anchorage Chamber of Commerce head Andrew Halcro, an independent; and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, the 2008 Democratic nominee against Republican Rep. Don Young and the 2010 gubernatorial nominee. Republican former Assembymember Paul Bauer is also in, but his campaign hasn't made much of an impact. If no one takes 50 percent in April, a runoff will be held at a later date. (Jeff Singer)
10:34 AM PT: Campaigns: Nathan Gonzales has another excellent piece on the background mechanics of campaigns, this time on the kinds of things prospective candidates can expect to face when they're gearing up for an election bid. They are all wise things for every hopeful—particularly first-timers—to consider carefully, including pieces of wisdom like "Delete the word 'private' from your vocabulary" and "Fundraising is a habit, not a choice." Running for office is an incredibly hard and often sucky experience; don't undertake it lightly.
10:45 AM PT: Special Elections: Nathan Gonzales makes a good point about special elections: They are often useless as tea leaves for reading broader political trends, but they can often serve as gateways to long careers in the House. For instance, the Democrats' top two leaders, Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, both first won office in special elections back in the 1980s.
Gonzales also observes that, in the last quarter-century, the party that won a special subsequently lost it in the next regularly scheduled election just six times in 101 chances. There are more details on the half-dozen outliers in this paywalled piece, but in each case, unusual circumstances such as wave elections or vote-splitting third-party candidates caused these seats to flip-flop. (The full list: WI-01 1993/94, NM-03 1997/98, LA-06 2008, NY-20 2009/10, HI-01 2010, NY-26 2011/12.)
That's particularly troubling for Democrats with regard to NY-11, since the DCCC appears ready to concede the special but sounds like it wants to compete for it in 2016. History says the odds of that working are not high, but then again, it's not like the D-Trip has any better choices.
12:37 PM PT: IA-01: Wealthy hotelier Ravi Patel, who had previously expressed interest in a bid for Congress, announced on Monday that he would indeed run in the Democratic primary in Iowa's 1st Congressional District. He'll face off against Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon (and possibly several others) for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. Rod Blum in this 56 percent Obama seat.
1:01 PM PT: Special Elections: A couple of 'em this week, courtesy Johnny Longtorso:
Florida HD-13: This one is a little unusual. Democratic State Rep. Reggie Fullwood was disqualified in the 2014 election due to a paperwork error, leaving the office vacant as he was the only candidate on the ballot. He's running again, and this time there is a Republican on the ballot, Lawrence Jefferson, who works in the Jacksonville Sheriff's office. Not that there's much chance of an upset in this Jacksonville district that went for President Obama by a 2-1 margin in 2012, but it is an example of why it's always a good idea to have someone on the ballot, even if a victory in 2014 would only have led to a two-year rental for Republicans.
Texas HD-123: This is a runoff between Democrat Diego Bernal, a former San Antonio City Council member, and Republican Nunzio Previtera, an insurance agent. In the first round, Bernal pulled in 47 percent to Previtera's 21 percent, and two other Democrats combined to win 29 percent of the vote, so Bernal will probably win easily here. The district, located in San Antonio (obviously), went 61-37 for Obama in 2012.
2:39 PM PT: NH-Sen: A new Marist poll of New Hampshire finds Gov. Maggie Hassan, the Democrats' dream candidate, leading GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte 48-44 in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. Hassan's job approval rating, though, seems too good to be true: She earns a wildly positive 70-24 score, which seems awfully high for any politician, but especially one who just won re-election by just 5 points.
Indeed, PPP's final poll last year, which nailed Hassan's victory margin, gave her a still-good but far less gaudy 51-39 job approval rating. And the only other recent survey, from New England College back in December, put Ayotte on top 48-43. It's also worth noting that Hassan hasn't even publicly stated any interest in the race. Still, the DSCC would very much like to recruit her, but even if they can't, New Hampshire will remain a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.
3:31 PM PT: IL-Sen: Awww yeah! Our cat fud brand just got upgraded from "oh please, oh please" to "spin cycle set on high." Raving lunatic ex-Rep. Joe Walsh, who previously offered his "personal guarantee" that Sen. Mark Kirk "couldn't survive a Republican primary," now says he himself is "very seriously considering" acting as the instrument of Kirk's doom. Democrats everywhere are trying to contain their excitement as they hide behind the washing machine.
Walsh, the tea partier's tea partier, would have plenty of fodder to use again Kirk, who has generally been smart enough to carve out a more moderate profile throughout his congressional career But it would, sadly, be hard for Walsh to actually beat Kirk in the primary, given Kirk's greater name recognition and resources (you know national Republicans would go all-out to protect him). Indeed, Kirk handily defeated conservative purist Patrick Hughes 57-19 in the 2010 primary.
However, even a kamikaze assault by Walsh would be a joy to behold, because it would force Kirk to spend money he'll desperately need to win re-election in blue Illinois, and because it might also drag him to the right, damaging him for the general election. Sadly, it's all probably too much to hope for—one commentator opined to The Hill that Walsh was just engaging in some self-promotion to further his radio career—but it's cold out there and Election Day is 20 months away. It's a time for big dreams. Just don't slam that dryer door shut just yet.