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8:59 AM PT (Jeff Singer): ME-02: The DCCC has been working to recruit 2014 nominee Emily Cain for a rematch with freshman Republican Bruce Poliquin for months, and their efforts have borne fruit. On Tuesday, Cain announced that she would run again in a contest that's expected to be a top Democratic target. Poliquin defeated Cain 47-42 in a northern Maine seat that Obama won 53-44, but national Democrats seem to think the result had more to do with the GOP wave than anything Cain did wrong.
Cain may not have the Democratic primary to herself though. Bangor Councilors Joe Baldacci and Ben Sprague have both expressed interest, and state House Majority Leader Jeff McCabe didn't quite close the door on a bid. Cain's 2014 primary rival Troy Jackson may also try again, though Jackson sounds like he's more likely to run as an independent.
9:20 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen:
It's going to be a while before the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski fully takes shape, but potential candidates are already beginning to make their intentions clear. Dreaminonempty has created a visual guide to both parties' field above.
On the Democratic side, former Gov. Martin O'Malley announced on Tuesday that he won't run. However, Rep. Chris Van Hollen said through an aide that he's "very likely" to run. Van Hollen is quite high in the House hierarchy, and he'd be risking a lot on a Senate bid. However, Van Hollen would start off the race with more money in the bank than any of his would-be rivals, and his two stints as DCCC chair will help him raise even more. Obama won Van Hollen's 8th District 62-36, so all the action to succeed him would be on the Democratic side.
On the GOP side, 2006 nominee and former RNC Chair Michael Steele was very evasive when he was asked about his plans, though it's not clear if he's actually serious about another run. Steele kept this race competitive last time, and his 54-44 loss to Ben Cardin wasn't bad given the Democratic wave. However, Steele's tenure at the RNC was incredibly chaotic, and national Republicans would probably rather have someone else even as they acknowledge that this will be a very uphill climb.
9:23 AM PT (Jeff Singer): ME-02: Despite threatening to run as an independent back in December, Jackson was elected to the DNC in January. There's no word on whether he's still interested in ME-02 though.
10:05 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-Gov, Sen: PPP takes another look at the two big 2016 contests in their home state. In the gubernatorial race, they give Republican incumbent Pat McCrory just a 43-41 lead over his likely Democratic foe, Attorney General Roy Cooper. McCrory led 44-39 back in February, though the difference is probably just noise at this point in the race. McCrory posts a meh 40-44 approval rating, while Cooper's favorability score is 34-21.
The DSCC has been trying to recruit former Sen. Kay Hagan to take on Republican Sen. Richard Burr, but PPP indicates that her name recognition might be more of a liability than an asset. Hagan's favorable ratings still haven't recovered from the brutal 2014 campaign, and she's quite underwater at 38-54. Burr himself isn't beloved with his 32-37 approval rating, but he leads Hagan by a 50-43 margin. It's still unclear how interested Hagan is in another run.
PPP tested a few alternatives to Hagan. Treasurer Janet Cowell, who seems like the DSCC's second choice, trails Burr 44-38. Former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx still doesn't sound incredibly interested in running, and he falls 45-36. Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines hasn't said much about his plans, though the DSCC will probably give him a call if Hagan and Cowell decline. In any case, he starts out with a 43-33 deficit. While Cowell, Foxx, and Joines all lag by similar or greater margins as Hagan, they do keep Burr further from 50 percent, so they all might have more room to grow than the former senator.
10:16 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KS-01, OH-04, OK-01: Has a House speaker ever run ads against members of his own caucus before? If not, John Boehner and his allied American Action Network are making a little bit of history with their new TV ad buys against Tim Huelskamp, Jim Bridenstine, and Jim Jordan.
The spots, which Politico reports are running for a combined $400,000, hit the members for voting against Homeland Security funding. All three congressmen have been thorns in Boehner's side for a while, and Huelskamp is likely to face a credible primary challenge. So far Bridenstine and Jordan look secure, and the well-connected Jordan in particular would be hard to unseat. All three seats are safely red.
10:25 AM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-Sen: We can finally upgrade Joe Sestak's status from "all-but certain-candidate" to just "candidate." On Wednesday, the former congressman and 2010 Democratic nominee will announce that he will seek a rematch with Republican incumbent Pat Toomey. Sestak's relationship with the state Democratic establishment is very poor and they've been looking for someone to oppose him in the primary. No one has stepped up to the plate so far, but former Rep. Chris Carney, state Sen. Vincent Hughes, and Philadelphia District Attorney Seth Williams all sound interested.
10:54 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: One of the big questions left in this race is whether or not Democratic New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu will run. Over at the New Orleans weekly magazine The Gambit, Jeremy Alford takes a look and finds that absolutely no one seems to know what Landrieu's thinking. Alford says that even people close to the mayor can't agree if he'll run, writing, "[s]ome say he will. Others call it unfathomable. Most simply have no idea what he'll do." It appears that Landrieu himself may not have any real idea what his 2015 plans are, and he's going to keep eyeing the contest for a while.
Right now, state Rep. John Bel Edwards is the only notable Democrat competing for this open seat, but there isn't a lot of optimism about his chances. However, it's unclear who else might step up. One name we can cross off is wealthy former state party chair Jim Bernhard, who is focused on a new business venture. Public Service Commissioner and 2007 candidate Foster Campbell initially sounded very interested in another campaign, he sounds pretty lukewarm about the idea now even as he keeps his options open.
Retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honore is an interesting option, and he confirmed that he's thinking about it. Honore was widely praised for his role during Hurricane Katrina, and he's recently emerged as a prominent opponent of fracking. Honore is a registered independent though, and there's no guarantee that he'll run as a Democrat if he does get in.
We might see some other Democrats get in, but they may not be running to win. Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle's path to victory almost certainly depends on them getting into a runoff with fellow Republican Sen. David Vitter, and peeling off enough Democratic and independent voters to beat him. However, as long as Edwards is the only Democrat in the race, he'll likely take the general election spot instead. Alford tells us that allies of Dardenne and Angelle are trying to recruit another Democrat to avoid this scenario, but so far we don't have any names.
10:56 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Polls:
Ok we'll do something other than a North Carolina or national poll this weekend- what state should we do?
— @ppppolls
My vote's for Kentucky.
11:05 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-18: While Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy would be a tough Senate candidate if he chooses to run, it won't be easy for Team Blue to hold his light-red House seat without him. But state Sen. Jeff Clemens and Palm Beach County County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay are already being recruited, and they aren't ruling out anything. Still, neither of them seems to be jumping for joy at the prospect. Clemens tells Politico that while he's listening, he's "pretty intent on running for minority leader," while McKinlay says she's not thinking about it right now.
1:54 PM PT (Jeff Singer): President-by-LD: This time around we take a look at the 2014 elections in Iowa, a state that's no stranger to ballot splitting. We have the results calculated by state House, Senate, and congressional district for each 2014 statewide contest, as well as the 2012 presidential race. You can find our master list of states here. Also be sure to check out Stephen Wolf's interactive state legislative maps.
The 2014 cycle was pretty disastrous for Hawkeye State Democrats overall. Republican Joni Ernst's 52-44 victory over Bruce Braley netted her 70 of the 100 state House districts, 38 of the 50 state Senate seats, and all four congressional districts. Ernst carried Braley's 1st Congressional District 48.3-47.9 percent, which helps explain how Republican Rob Blum was able to win it 51-49. Ernst also took the open 3rd District by a 52-44 margin, running a little behind Republican David Young's 53-42 victory here.
Republican incumbents also easily prevailed in the gubernatorial, agriculture commissioner, and auditor races, and Team Red narrowly held the open secretary of state office. Agricultural Commissioner Bill Northey led the ticket with his 62-34 win, carrying 85 House seats, 44 Senate districts, and all four congressional seats. Democratic incumbents did easily win in the treasurer and attorney general contests though. Longtime Attorney General Tom Miller's 56-44 win gave him 77 House seats and 43 Senate districts. Miller also easily carried IA-01, IA-02, and IA-03, and came very close to taking Steve King's 4th District.
The Iowa state Senate was one of the few bright spots for Democrats. Despite the stiff headwinds, Democrats emerged with the same 26-24 majority they came in with, even as they lost four seats in the state House. Wolf's interactive map is above: Solid blue seats went for Obama and have a Democratic state senator, solid red seats voted for Romney and a Republican senator, and light red seats supported Obama but have a GOP state senator (there are no state Senate seats left that backed Romney and sent a Democrat to Des Moines). Six Republican hold Obama seats, and four of them will be up in 2016.
Of the 25 Senate seats up in 2014 (the odd numbered districts), Democrats won 14, the exact number the needed to maintain control. This is all the more impressive considering that Ernst carried 16 of those 25 districts.
2:07 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: Republican Hal Heiner, a former Louisville councilor, is out with his four spot. It features various people touting his business record, and manages to drop the word "jobs" five times in only 30 seconds. Heiner's camp says the ad is running statewide, but there's no word on the size of the buy.
2:33 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen: Also on the Democratic side, Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake's office confirmed that she is looking at running and will decide over the next "several weeks." Rawlings-Blake runs what is by far the state's largest city and she'd start out with far more name recognition than most of the other candidates. However, she's also up for re-election in November of 2016.
Rep. Donna Edwards also publicly expressed interest, and may have even accidentally given away her plans in a Freudian slip. Edwards has good tied to progressive groups that could help with fundraising, which is a potential weak spot for her.
Former Howard County Executive and 2014 lieutenant governor nominee Ken Ulman hasn't said anything about his plans, nor has former NAACP head and 2006 candidate Kweisi Mfume (who is also a former congressman), but they're both worth keeping an eye on at this early stage.
On the GOP side, former Gov. Bob Ehrlich had been pursuing a presidential bid, but he may be reconsidering his plans. When asked about Mikulski's departure his camp gave a very vague "we were surprised by the announcement. We wish her well and have no further comment." Ehrlich won the governorship in a 2002 upset, but lost 53-46 to O'Malley in 2006. He sought a rematch in 2010 and despite the GOP wave, Ehrlich lost by a larger 56-42 margin. Still, Ehrlich would give the GOP a candidate who could raise money and could potentially make things interesting if he ran.
2:59 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NY State Assembly: Normally there wouldn't be anything to watch in a special election in a 93-7 Obama seat, but due to a very strange set of circumstances, there will be no Democratic nominee on May 5. Instead, four candidates will run against one another on existing third-party ballot lines or under the banner of parties they just created.
The New York Observer's Ross Barkan tells us how we got to this point. In Empire State special elections, the county committees pick their nominees. The Brooklyn Democratic establishment never bothered to nominate enough of its own committees candidates last September to for this 10 person body: Even as perennial candidate Guillermo Philpotts was only taking 5 percent in a Democratic state Senate primary, his allies were winning spots on the local committee in this Crown Heights district. On Sunday, the committee passed over Democratic District Leader Shirley Patterson and gave the party's nomination to Philpotts.
But Philpotts, like so many candidates before him, got tripped up by a paperwork error. Since he didn't turn in his routine certificate of nomination, Philpotts was thrown off the ballot, and he has no alternative party line to get him back on. However, Patterson will be running as the Independence Party nominee. She will face Working Families Party nominee Diana Richardson, fellow Democratic District Leader Geoffrey Davis (running under his new "Love Yourself" ballot line), and Republican/ Conservative nominee Menachem Raitport.
3:19 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Senate: This cycle, Joe Sestak and Russ Feingold are trying to beat the same people who beat them six years before. As Nathan Gonzales explains at Roll Call, it's pretty rare for Senate candidates to pull this off. While New Hampshire's Jeanne Shaheen managed to unseat the man who had defeated her in an open seat six years before, it's been a very long time since a senator lost re-election, then regained his seat from the same person who had beaten him.
In fact, you'd need to go back to 1934 to find a successful example of someone doing what Feingold's trying to do. In 1928, Rhode Island Democrat Peter Gerry lost his seat to Republican Felix Hebert by a 51-48 margin. Six years later, Gerry unseated Hebert 57-43. The whole article is worth reading for a good look at Senate rematches and how other senators managed to resurrect their careers after an initial defeat.
3:35 PM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-10: When we last heard from former Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider, he sounded fairly reluctant to run against Republican Rep. Bob Dold! again. However, Roll Call reports that Schneider is looking a lot more likely to go for it. The DCCC has been trying to land Schneider, though Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rodkin Rotering also sounds interested in seeking the Democratic nod. Obama won this affluent North Shore seat 58-41, but it still favors moderate Republicans downballot.
3:49 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen: Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes' spokesman has also confirmed his interest. Sarbanes is the son of Paul Sarbanes, who served in the Senate until 2007. Fellow Rep. Elijah Cummings also acknowledged that he's looking at the seat.
3:56 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen: Dan Bongino, the 2012 GOP Senate nominee and 2014 nominee, also hinted at a "big announcement" for Wednesday. Bongino came close to upsetting Democrat John Delaney (another potential Senate candidate) last year, but lost his 2012 race 56-26.
4:03 PM PT (David Jarman): Votes: The final vote on Department of Homeland Security funding, after much bungling last week, passed 257-167 on Tuesday. In what may be the final nail in the coffin of the Hastert Rule, though, the 'yes' votes were a coalition of all Democrats (182-0) and many establishment Republicans (75 yes, 167 no). If you need one convenient vote to establish which GOPers are in the leftmost (or least-rightmost, if you prefer) third of their caucus, this is your handy guide.
One other revealing list came out Wednesday as well: it was a list from the DCCC of the 29 House Republicans that they are targeting with DHS-themed robocalls. In what's probably not a coincidence, the large majority of the targets of the calls were also among the minority of the GOPers who voted 'yes' on the DHS vote: Martha McSally, Jeff Denham, David Valadao, Mike Coffman, David Jolly, Carlos Curbelo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Bob Dold, Mike Bost, Rodney Davis, Bruce Poliquin, Dan Benishek, Cresent Hardy, Frank LoBiondo, John Katko, Ryan Costello, Pat Meehan, Greg Walden, Will Hurd, Barbara Comstock, and Dave Reichert.
Only a few from the robocall list voted 'no:' Scott Tipton, Rod Blum, David Young, Tim Walberg, Scott Garrett, Lee Zeldin, and Randy Forbes. Some of these guys seem like long-shots for pickups; the only surprises, given their vulnerability, seem to be Zeldin and Young (and Blum, of course, though some of his behavior so far this term seems like someone who's aware of his two-year rental on the seat and content to go down with the ship).
If you're thinking "ZOMG! The robocalls worked! Do more of that, DCCC!" the causal arrow isn't that clear, though. These are GOPers that the DCCC has in its sights because they're in swing districts, are freshmen who aren't entrenched yet, or both (or in Walden's case, neither, but they're engaged in some tit-for-tat since the NRCC has been similarly poking at Ben Ray Lujan). And they voted 'yes' either because they're already worried about their survival given their districts, or they're genuinely temperamentally moderate, or both. The DCCC list is interesting at this point mostly just because it shows the likely parameters of the 2016 House battlefield.